Nassim Nicholas Taleb
25 feb 2023
In this book the author explores the role of luck and randomness in life. He deals with the markets, everyday misconceptions of statistics and the role emotions play in decision making.
You can't say all swans are white by observing 1,000 white ducks, but you can disprove that claim by only observing one black swan.
we tend to confuse the absence of evidence with the evidence of absence.
When dealing with the real world, even experts tend to be played by their human side.
We tend to underestimate the role luck plays in everyday life, and how "Black Swans" are more common than we tend to believe.
When talking about the market, our perception is bias because our sample is only made up of the survivors, the "winners."
In general this book gives a broad perspective on the understanding of statistics, conditional and unconditional in a pragmatic way. Would definitely recommend